Sony takes lead as game-console war heats up

Sony takes lead as game-console war heats up: "Did Nintendo's decision not to reveal details about its new console hurt its prospects?

The buzz: Publishers were disappointed that Nintendo didn't tell them anything they didn't know and aren't sure how Nintendo's box will compete against Sony's and Microsoft's.

Analysis: Game publishers still have enormous respect for Nintendo's creativity when it comes to making zany kids' games. But they are skeptical that Nintendo's strategy will allow it to attract developers to its side when Microsoft and Sony are signing up developers left and right. There may not be many left for Nintendo."

Nintendo should have said more at E3 but they're trying to make their own rules which is to not showboat or tip their hand on what the new game console will do and how it works. MS and Sony are doing the opposite - showboating for mindshare where Sony just won round 1. In a 3 way race Nintendo's caution is a necessary move - they'd be 3rd after trying to impress.

Nintendo isn't going to ship the the fastest system (Sony will), or be a first mover and ship in 2005 (MS will and XBOX is also powerful). Nintendo is forced to play it "smart", that is they're trying to out think and maneuver MS and Sony. That means they must make something novel and not let the others catch on to the specifics too soon. If they tip their hand early, MS and Sony for sure will incorporate Nintendo's ideas and out muscle them with a more powerful system.

Nintedo has a chance. Nintendo's system will be more affordable, smaller, compatible and ??????. We don't know the last attribute and will not until probably it ships.

Will developers target Nintendo? Yes.

Why? Cost. - It will a simpler and therefore easier system to program and therefore draw those developers because they will not need to program for 3 PPC CPUs.

Nintendo games and the platform should be significantly less expensive than XBOX and PS3. While Sony and MS can sell at a loss, game developers will not.

Today Nintendo trails MS by a nose and is in the #3 position (19% to 14%). They have a chance to be number 2 and if Sony (43%) blows it with PS3, a solid number 2. Sony has yet to ship a Cell processor and show any hardware. Sony is not going to drop to #3 - they have to much of an installed base but they have set the bar high and might slip up in 2006.

MS is looking weak. They're moving too soon with the new XBOX360 (disparaged as XBOX v1.5). Sony's game will out perform XBOX in graphics resolution (What MS thought was an XBOX strength) and XBOX360 has compatibility problems with today's XBOX games. While MS can afford to lose money and bleed Sony with cut rate pricing - they can't bleed Nintendo since their system will not be as expensive to make.

MS has to leverage their lead to market and sell a lot of systems in 2005-06 while Sony has to use PR to freeze the market and ship new PS2 titles in 2005 and show great demos of things to come in late 2006.

Nintendo has no choice than to let Sony freeze the 2005 market (and slow MS XBOX360) and then ship something novel, easy to program and affordable in 2006 just after PS3 ships. If Sony slips up with PS3, Nintendo will be there with a novel console selling for less than an XBOX360 with less expensve titles and great software compatibility.